Act I with random choices - Probabilities

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Atario
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Atario » Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:48 pm

In fact, let's go one step further and multiply my results by Notguest's and see what we get.

Code: Select all

Name        Route          Bad         Neutral        Good           Route         Bad         Neutral       Good  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kenji     1243/2304     1243/2304                                   53.9497%     53.9497%                          
Emi        715/3072      715/8192                  3575/24576       23.2747%      8.7280%                  14.5467%
Rin        235/1536     1175/18432   1645/36864    1645/36864       15.2995%      6.3748%      4.4623%      4.4623%
Shizune    371/9216      371/18432                  371/18432        4.0256%      2.0128%                   2.0128%
Hanako      53/3072       53/6144      53/12288      53/12288        1.7253%      0.8626%      0.4313%      0.4313%
Lilly       53/3072      371/24576                   53/24576        1.7253%      1.5096%                   0.2157%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total        1/1          47/64       451/9216     1997/9216       100.0000%     73.4375%      4.8937%     21.6688%
Fractions on the left, rounded percentages on the right. As you can see, your assessment is correct! Also, congratulations to the Lilly-good-enders for using reason to thread a needle random chance would have a hell of a time with.
NB: none of the above is a request

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Charmant
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Charmant » Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:03 pm

So Kenji's picnic is the easiest thing to get? This thread does make me feel less lousy for having gotten mostly bad ends first...

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Mirage_GSM
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Mirage_GSM » Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:05 pm

Emi:

37.5% (3/8) bad
62.5% (5/8) good

…based on listening to advice or not, two or three times between three possible choice points.
I'm not sure if the way you arrived at these numbers is correct, but the numbers themselves seem to be - if the flowchart of Geekahedron is correct. I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
If not you have a 25% chance to get the Good End by answering correctly to Mutou and Meiko and another 37,5% (75%/2) chance to get there by answering correctly to Misha after you failed either of the previous choices.
Emi > Misha > Hanako > Lilly > Rin > Shizune

My collected KS-Fan Fictions: Mirage's Myths
griffon8 wrote:Kosher, just because sex is your answer to everything doesn't mean that sex is the answer to everything.
Sore wa himitsu desu.

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Atario
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Atario » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:10 pm

Mirage_GSM wrote:I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
Sure reads like it should, doesn't it? But the seekrit runes seem to say no…
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by brythain » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:39 pm

Atario wrote:
Mirage_GSM wrote:I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
Sure reads like it should, doesn't it? But the seekrit runes seem to say no…
The one choice is whether you're going to look after your own health or not, at 'Waylay'. If you do, you allow yourself the Emi option, if you reply 'Maybe', you don't. I think.
Post-Yamaku, what happens? After The Dream is a mosaic that follows everyone to the (sometimes) bitter end.
Main Index (Complete)Shizune/Lilly/Emi/Hanako/Rin/Misha + Miki + Natsume
Secondary Arcs: Rika/Mutou/AkiraHideaki | Others (WIP): Straw—A Dream of SuzuSakura—The Kenji Saga.
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Atario
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Atario » Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:25 am

brythain wrote:
Atario wrote:
Mirage_GSM wrote:I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
Sure reads like it should, doesn't it? But the seekrit runes seem to say no…
The one choice is whether you're going to look after your own health or not, at 'Waylay'. If you do, you allow yourself the Emi option, if you reply 'Maybe', you don't. I think.
No, I think he meant the one in "Debate Expresses Doubt". "Waylay" is back in Act 1.
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Notguest
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Notguest » Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:50 am

I had to double check those Emi numbers since it sounded wrong. It turns out that your numbers are right, but I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.

The 1st, 2nd, and 4th choices don't matter at all. In particular, getting advice from the Nurse doesn't matter. In the only choices that matter are getting advice from Mutou, pursuing Emi in the house, and letting Misha know.

Talk to Mutuo ->
choice in Emi's house
pursue Emi -> scene with Misha -> 50% good, 50% bad
stay with Mother -> 100% good

Don't talk to Mutuo -> scene with Misha -> 50% good, 50% bad

So overall, it is 5/8 good, 3/8 bad.


Edit: And of course someone already said all this and I didn't notice before going off and checking myself.

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Atario
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Atario » Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:30 pm

Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
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SpunkySix
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by SpunkySix » Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:46 pm

Then again, once you factor in that some players have good taste, the chances of ending up with Emi are basically 100%.
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Notguest » Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:23 am

Atario wrote:
Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
I already explained it in the post you quoted. But specifically, whether you get advice from the Nurse doesn't matter at all, and the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.

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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by SpunkySix » Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:35 am

Notguest wrote:
Atario wrote:
Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
I already explained it in the post you quoted. But specifically, whether you get advice from the Nurse doesn't matter at all, and the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.
Numerically maybe not, but their words certainly helped give me an idea of how I would respond to Emi's behavior. Nurse especially helps, since his talk comes before the big choice.
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Mirage_GSM » Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:54 am

Notguest wrote:
Atario wrote:
Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
I already explained it in the post you quoted. But specifically, whether you get advice from the Nurse doesn't matter at all, and the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.
I'd rather say because not all three choices (Mutou, Meiko and Misha) are equal, i.e if you answer Misha correctly you'll get the good end regardless of what you did before and if you answer Mutou incorrectly, you won't even get to choose with Meiko.
Emi > Misha > Hanako > Lilly > Rin > Shizune

My collected KS-Fan Fictions: Mirage's Myths
griffon8 wrote:Kosher, just because sex is your answer to everything doesn't mean that sex is the answer to everything.
Sore wa himitsu desu.

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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Notguest » Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:39 am

There's also that.

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Atario
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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities

Post by Atario » Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:45 am

Notguest wrote:the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.
I would definitely consider it that way. Between running after Emi and staying to talk to Meiko, who just saw everything happen, that's pretty much what's going down.
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