[quote=”Aura”]If you guys want to work it out (possibly actually worthwhile), take it to a new thread.[/quote]

I’ll do that.

Not sure if it’s really worthwhile, but it’s an interesting problem anyway, so let’s go step by step:

Leading up to “Lunch Evolution Theory” there are five choices. Four of them are binary and one of them has three options. This equals 48 different combinations.

You can set up to three flags per girl, and you need two of them for the option of the path in question to appear in LET.

The probability that you will unlock the choice for Shizune path

*only*is 13 out of 48 or 27,08%.

The probability that you will unlock the choice for Lilly/Hanako path

*only*is the same.

The probability that you will unlock both choices is 7 out of 48 or 14,58%.

The probability that you will unlock neither choice is 15 out of 48 or 31,25%.

Here’s where things become a bit tricky since the next choice point has a variable number of options:

If you unlocked one choice you will have two options with a chance of 50% to set the flag for the respective girl’s path. 27,08% *0,5 -> 13,54% for either Shizune or Hanako/Lilly.

If you unlocked both choices you will have three options with a chance of 33% each to set the flag for Shizune respectively Lilly/Hanako path. 14,58% *0,33 -> 4,86% for either Shizune or Hanako/Lilly.

If you unlocked neither choice you won’t be able to set any flag.

Add the probabilities, and you get 18,40% each for Shizune and for Lilly/Hanako path.

The remaining 63,19% mean that you set the flag for neither path and won’t be able to get their endings.

Next is “Cold War”, the confrontation between Shizune and Lilly. (“Waylay” comes in between, but since this is all multiplication and you always have to go through both choices the order doesn’t really matter here. I will get back to this choice later on.) It is a binary choice. Between Lilly and Shizune and will enable you to set the second flag. Basically it halves the chances that you will get on Shizune respectively Lilly/Hanako path to 9,2% each.

The probability that both routes will be locked for you is now 81,60%. I’ll call this the Emi/Rin Path.

From here on out I’ll examine those three cases separately.

**Emi/Rin Path**

Here the next (or previous if you will) relevant choice is “Waylay”. It is a binary choice. To get to Emi’s end, you have to pick “correctly” which will take you to “Exercise” where you’ll have to pick correctly again which makes the probability to reach Emi’s end this way 81,60% *0,25 -> 20,40%.

If you pick the “wrong” choice in “Waylay” you get to “Mind your Step” instead followed by “Creative Pain”. Both are binary “Kenji-choices” i.e picking the wrong one will send you on a one way path to the Deep End.

Consequently you get the following result for Emi/Rin path:

Kenji: 45,9%

Emi: 20,40%

Rin: 15,3%

which adds up to the 81,60% for this path

I made a mistake here in my earlier calculation, because I simply forgot the second Kenji-choice in “Creative Pain” so a significant portion of Rin’s total from my earlier calculation should be Kenji’s.

**Lilly/Hanako Path**

There is a 50% chance you set the Emi-flag in “Waylay”. If you did you also get to see the choice in Exercise to get on Emi route. The probability for this is 9,2% *0,25 -> 2,3%

If you didn’t chose Emi in “Wayay” you’ll get one chance to get on Kenji’s path in “Mind your Step” and a final choice between Hanako and Lilly. The same is true if you don’t choose Emi again in “Exercise”.

I think not considering the possibility to get back on Emi’s route from here was another mistake I made earlier. (I forgot to save the excel sheet I used for the calculations^^°)

So the results for Lilly/Hanako Path are:

Kenji: 3,45%

Emi: 2,3%

Lilly/Hanako: 1,73% each

which adds up to the 9,20% for this path

**Shizune Path**

*deep breath*

In this path there is also the possibility that you set the Emi-flag in “Waylay” (4,60%). If you did not you’l get directly to the choice in “No Recovery” which will send you either towards Kenji’s end or Shizune’s (2,3% each).

If you did you will see the choice in “Exercise” with a 50% chance to get to “No Recovery” again binary choice between Kenji and Shizune, this time only 1,15% each.

Otherwise you’ll get to “Slow Recovery” with a 50% chance for the Kenji End (1,15%) and 50% for another choice between Emi and Shizune (0,58% each).

Adding all this up we get:

Kenji: 4,60% (2,30%+1,15%+1,15%)

Shizune: 4,03% (2,30%+1,15%+0,58%)

Emi: 0,58%

which adds up to the 9,20% for this path

Total probabilities for Act 1 are:

Kenji: 53,95%

Emi: 23,28%

Rin: 15,30%

Shizune: 4,03%

Lilly: 1,73%

Hanako: 1,73%

which adds up to 100%

Notguest did a similar calculation before with slightly different results. The post can be found here. Since he didn't post how he arrived at those results, I can't tell if or where he made a mistake.

If somebody finds a mistake in

*my*calculation, I will gladly correct it and give credit to whoever found it. It is a pretty complex problem after all…